Binary Options Trading Guide DailyForex

A proposal to eliminate the spread of COVID-19 in Ireland

This is a long one. There is no TL;DR, but Google tells me it should take about 10 minutes to read. Or, you can skip to The Plan - Summary if you want the bullet points.
But why should you give this any time at all?
My background is in data analysis. Making sense of numbers is what I do for a living. I have been studying COVID-19 since I was locked down in March and the experience has been frustrating in equal measure. The difference between what was happening on the ground, and the story that the media told was genuinely alarming. The government / NPHET never even tried to stop the virus getting into the country, and no one held them to account for their (non)decisions. The disastrous consequences are all around us, and much of it was preventable.
Six months later, and the country has barely moved on. The ‘experts’ have no goals and little control over the virus. The media frame every issue as a crass binary choice between more or less restrictions and are otherwise happy just to have people to point their fingers at. The government / NPHET has nothing to offer the people, other than admonishments to do better and repeated cycle of restrictions.
Meanwhile students, artists, the over 70s, small business owners, the entire events and hospitality industries, and regular people who cannot WFH have been left swinging in the wind. Some have been evicted, others are relying on drugs to get by. This situation is not just a problem for one or two parts of our society: this is a widespread degradation of our quality of life. If I can do anything to help, I feel obliged to try.

Context
As I see it, we have three choices:
I won’t argue over technocratic definitions like ‘elimination’, ‘eradication’ or ‘suppression’. These distinctions are semantic in an environment of oppressive civic restrictions, mass unemployment, waves of business closures, and general misery. Whatever gets us to a place where we can live our lives as normal (or close enough), and the public health infrastructure can take care of the virus, that’s what I’m aiming for.
This proposal cannot work without public support. No proposal can work without public support. Public adherence is the single most important variable in the equation, yet it is the one that the politicians and the media and the ‘experts’ have ignored. FG burned through a lot of goodwill in the first lockdown (and money, and resources, and lives…). Instead of vilifying people who aren’t adhering to the rules, policymakers need to recognise the sacrifices that the people made (which were subsequently squandered) and they need to earn that trust back.
This proposal cannot work without support from the North. That doesn’t mean that we need to convince them to adopt our plan. It means we need to convince them that the goal is worthwhile and achievable. From there we can work together to coordinate our policies. Managing our own affairs with competence, would be a good start. Picking up the phone to talk to them, instead of trying to browbeat them through the media, would also help.
Irrespective of your goals or beliefs, some facts are certain: there will be lockdowns, there will be government spending to support the economy, and the virus will demand public health resources. All of that will happen in the coming months and years, whether we have a plan or not. The question is whether those resources are used to solve the problem, or whether they are wasted on a plan that keeps us going around in circles.
So yes, there will be lockdowns in this proposal, but they will not be FG lockdowns i.e. lock them down and throw away the key. Through intelligent policies and a greater mobilisation of resources, we can do so much more with our lockdowns to reduce the burden on the people and make their experience more tolerable. Indeed, that trade-off always exists in public policy: better policymaking = happier people. Which is why the politicians usually get the blame, and rightly so.
We need to move to a more ‘war time’ mindset. Not because we need a shared enemy to unite us, but because we need to mobilise every possible resource at our disposal and focus it on the single most important issue affecting us all. We need more tests, we need vehicles for mobile testing units, we need facilities for quarantines. Wherever there is spare capacity, we need to find a way to put it to good use. We need to take most of the power away from the narrow-minded medics, and get the rest of our society and our civic infrastructure involved in planning e.g. community representatives, legal experts, business leaders, An Garda, the army etc.
People want to invest in their communities, they want to help their friends and neighbours. There are people all over the country who would rather be volunteering as part of a national plan to get rid of COVID-19, than to be sitting at home on the PUP, going crazy listening to the ‘experts’ – who failed to prevent this – talk about more lockdowns. We need to harness that latent energy and build it into the plan.
One of the most important factors that is within our control, is the degree to which policymakers communicate with the people. And I mean real communication, not press releases or attention-seeking speeches from the other side of the world. We need to talk to the people, listen to them, answer their questions, take their feedback on board. The people aren’t stupid. They know a good plan when they see it – which is why few are paying attention to the ‘Living With The Virus’ stuff – and they have valuable information that can help make that plan work.
Underlying these points is a need to create intelligent rules, and to enforce them strictly. Strict does not mean harsh. Strict enforcement is not authoritarianism, and it is not an invitation to a fight; it is simply administrative competence. In the context of a contagious outbreak, administrative competence is the difference between life and death.
I’ll finish this section with the caveat that all parameters are suggestions or placeholders. The exact numbers will depend on resources, on more data and further analysis, and on input from communities and other stakeholders – all of which is within our control.

The Plan – Summary
Like any problem in life, if you can’t solve it directly, you break it down into smaller, less complex parts.
Instead of putting the whole country into lockdown and trying to eradicate the virus from the whole island at the same time – a miserable experience for all – we should go county by county until the job is done. We seal off a county, flood it with resources, clear it of COVID-19, and then let it reopen as normal. We repeat the process for neighbouring counties and then combine them when they are cleared, to create a larger ‘Cleared Zone’. The process continues and the Cleared Zone keeps growing until it covers the whole island.
This approach allows us to focus our resources on one area at a time (nurses, doctors, tests, volunteers etc) instead of spreading them over the whole country. We can be more comprehensive in our testing and quarantining measures, and more confident in our plans. Short, sharp, strict lockdowns work best.
By maximising the ratio of resources to population, we also lower the burden on the people. In particular, we minimise the amount of time that people spend in lockdown, and the less time they spend in lockdown, the more likely the plan is to work.
This structured approach also makes it easier for us to measure our progress and make reliable forecasts. We can allocate our resources more efficiently and plan our responses more effectively. Observers can watch our progress and judge for themselves whether it is a good idea (i.e. politicians in the North and / or protestors in Dublin).
Perhaps most important of all, the structure makes it easier to explain the idea to the people and get buy-in before anything happens. We can outline the plan, explain how it works, explain how it compares to the alternatives, and then give them realistic estimates of what would be required and how long it would take. Then we can hear their feedback and take the conversation and planning from there.
I have heard any people talking about elimination and ZeroCovid, but do any of them have a plan for getting to zero? Or a plan to get the people on board?
Step 1: More structure and responsibility from leaders
Step 2: Less uncertainty, easier decisions, better outcomes, less stress for everyone
Step 3: Profit. Elimination.

The Plan – Implementation
We isolate a county and lock it down for an initial 3 weeks. An Garda man the county borders. They are supported by the army, who provide boots on the ground so that An Garda aren’t stretched. Most routes are closed off so that all essential travel goes through a few well-manned checkpoints. If we do a good job with planning and communication, there won’t be much work to do.
We test systemically high-risk households and high-risk individuals early and often i.e. large households and essential workers. With help from local volunteers, medics screen as many people as possible every day. We use multiple measures and repeated applications to improve the quality of our results. We want to identify and remove cases at the earliest possible point, both to reduce the chance of further infection, and to protect the individual’s health.
Low risk confirmed cases (young / healthy) go to a safe and comfortable quarantine. Local hotels and guest houses could be used, ideally before we invest in building quarantine facilities. Local taxis, kitted out with extra protective equipment, could take them there. High risk confirmed cases (older / comorbidities) go by ambulance to local medical facilities as required.
During this period, we work with local politicians, community leaders, residence associations etc to ensure that everyone is looked after (in reality, these conversations will have started weeks before). We get our neighbourhoods communicating, looking out for each other, making sure they’ve got enough food or heating or whatever else they need. Local volunteers and taxi drivers can do odd jobs like sending packages, collecting prescriptions, lifting heavy stuff, or just checking in on people. If it is feasible, we can even invite local artists to play gigs for people in their streets or apartments.
Towards the end of the second week, we begin a mass testing program with the ultimate goal of testing every person in the county (scale depends on resources). Once we have completed the tests and cleared the confirmed cases into quarantine, we can begin a slow, staggered opening process. We must be especially conservative at this point to ensure no slippage.
When one county is clear, we move to the next one, and repeat the process. When we have cleared two bordering counties, we can join them together in a bigger Cleared Zone and the process continues from there. Eventually the Cleared Zone covers the whole country, except Dublin (or more realistically, the Pale).
What would the other counties do while they wait for their turn? I’m assuming that, they would be doing whatever the ‘Living With The Virus’ plan dictates. This proposal succeeds in line with what happens in the sealed off zones, so I am more concerned with them. However, it would speed up the process if the bordering counties could be encouraged to get a head start. If the plan is going successfully, I’m confident they would.
With its population density and its complexity, Dublin / the Pale will be the last county to be cleared. However, given that every other county would be cleared by that point, and with so much effort having been put in, it might make more sense just to burn Dublin down. We could go with a concrete mausoleum as per Chernobyl, but it might be easier and quicker if we just raised the city and started from scratch. The country needs to rebalance, so it’d be two birds with one stone.
Or maybe we call that plan B. Dublin’s plan A would follow the same principles as for the rest of the country. Break it into smaller parts, focus resources on one area at a time, use layers of risk measures where precision isn’t an option, and get cases as early as possible, using whatever resources available. By that stage the rest of the country would be clear and the demand for medical resources low. We would have learned a lot along the way, and we would have plenty of ammo to throw at the problem.
In general, the more resources we have, the faster we can move. The county by county approach that I have outlined above is too slow. With greater resources, we can increase the number of counties that are being cleared at any one time. One option is to work by province. Another would be to define the zones with respect to observed travel routes, in order to reduce the risk of leakage and reduce the inconvenience on local communities.
At the end of the day, lines have to be drawn somewhere, and some people will inevitably lose out. The better we communicate with people in advance, the lower the burden on the people and the more of these problems we can avoid.
Following on from that, one of the skills we need to take from this crisis is the ability to isolate and quarantine regions. Whether it is a city, a town, a county, a specific building, or even the entire country, we need to be able to seal it off and control movement in and out. This is an essential tool for outbreak management – whatever the outbreak and whatever the disease.
The same goes for individuals. We need to be able to create and operate safe, comfortable, and effective quarantines, and to do so at short notice. It should be a matter of national embarrassment that FG and NPHET couldn’t even organise a quarantine in a pandemic.
The whole process might take 3 to 4 months. That means we would have cut off all non-essential air travel for that time, but it doesn’t mean the whole country is in lockdown for 3 or 4 months. The lockdown is staggered, and the individual’s experience will depend on their location and their place in the ‘queue’.
The first group of counties to go into lockdown will also be the first to come out. Once they have eliminated the spread of the virus, they will return to a normal, although somewhat isolated, society. The experience steadily improves as more and more counties join them in the Cleared Zone (or steadily deteriorates, depending on your county pride).
While the first group is in lockdown, the rest of the country continues as normal i.e. living with the virus. Everyone watches as the first group goes through its lockdown (just think of the #banter). Several weeks later, as the first group is opening up, the second group is preparing to go in to lockdown. As the second group comes out, the third group goes in etc etc and the staggered lockdowns roll like a wave across the country.
Every county goes from Living With The Virus -> intelligent lockdown (needs a better name) -> Cleared Zone. The earlier you are in the queue, the less time you spend Living With The Virus and the more time you spend in the Cleared Zone. The individual would only be in a strict lockdown for a matter of weeks, maybe 3-6 depending on the complexity of the region and the resources available. For counties with smaller populations that have shown that they can do a good lockdown, it will be quicker. For Dublin, it will be slower.

Strengths
I think this proposal has a lot of strengths. It’s a plan, for a start. We haven’t had a plan since this thing began (the FG lockdown wasn’t a plan – it was the inevitable consequence of not having a plan). The leaders take more responsibility to lower the burden on the people, it mobilises idle resources, and it fosters communication and community across the country.
These are three strengths that I want to emphasise.
1 It provides clarity
This might be the most important point.
Uncertainty is painful. Uncertainty is a cost. Even if the bad thing is unlikely to happen, just the fact that it is a risk, or that it could happen means that you live with a cloud over your head. Suffering is bad enough on its own, but suffering for an unknown length of time is torture. And if that period is determined at the whim of a politician or an ‘expert’, that is a recipe for society-wide anger and even civil disorder.
With this proposal, we can forecast the length of the period of lockdown with greater accuracy. The people will be able to understand what is being asked of them. We can make plans around resources required versus those available. The economists can make forecasts. Businesses can plan their finances. The people can plan their weddings, book their holidays, get back to training, sign up for courses, and have things to look forward to.
At the end of the day, any successful proposal must remove the uncertainty and provide meaningful clarity to households and businesses.
2 Never let a crisis go to waste
This plan will require tools and capabilities like rapid local testing, safe quarantines, rapid isolation of towns and regions, emergency decision-making frameworks etc. If we don’t have a capability, then we need to build it. When people say ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ this is what they mean: you build the tools in the crisis that will help you protect yourself from the next one.
Nature works the same way. You lift weights until the muscle fibres tear, then they grow back stronger. We build aerobic endurance by pushing ourselves to a limit, then our body naturally reacts to increase the limit. A vaccine works similarly by stimulating antibodies for the disease. Well, we need a civic emergency vaccine for Ireland. These tools are the antibodies that will protect us next time. The sooner we build them, the better. Now is the time, not later.
3 It's the only way we can protect the economy
The risk to the economy isn’t the next few months of revenue. We can borrow to cover lost income in the short run. The real risk is a wave of defaults that precipitates a financial crisis.
As more individuals and businesses are put under financial pressure, more borrowers will default on their debts. But one man’s debt is another man’s asset, so as the borrowers default, the lender’s financial situation also deteriorates. Defaults are contagious, and if a wave of defaults threatens a major lender, the entire financial system will be at risk.
Only an elimination plan can protect the economy. Along with the virus and the uncertainty it creates, we need to eliminate the risk of financial contagion.

Weaknesses
Could ya be arsed

The End Goal
Think about what’s on the other side of this…
This is a massive challenge – the kind that defines a nation. However you think of your community, this would give you something to be proud of for generations. It would be like Italia ’90, except 10 times bigger, because we would be the players, we would be the ones making it happen.
We’d become the first country in Europe to eliminate the virus. And of all the countries in the world, we’d be doing it from the largest deficit too. Those Taiwanese and Kiwis made it easy for themselves with their preparation and their travel restrictions and their competent leaders. Our challenge is much greater than theirs, but they show us what is possible.
Have you ever wanted to scoff at the Germans for being disorganised? Wouldn’t you love to have a reason to mock the Danes? Aren’t you sick of hearing about New Zealand? Let’s make the Kiwis sick of hearing about the Irish!
If we take this challenge on, the world’s media will be on us. The FT, the Economist, the NYT, the Guardian, Monacle, Wired, the New Scientist, China Daily, RT, Good Housekeeping, Horse and Hound, PornHub… all of these international media empires would be tracking our progress, interviewing key people, reporting daily, willing us on. The world is desperate for good news, and we can be the ones to give it to them.
We would become a model for other nations to follow. They would take the Irish model and adapt it to their own situation. Instead of us copying other nations, they would be copying us. Instead of a pat on the head for the diddy little Irish fellas, we would be literally LEADING THE WORLD.
Back at home, we get our lives back, and society can breathe again, free of restrictions. The over 70s come out of hibernation. The students go back to university. The protests stop because people go back to work and we announce an inquiry into what exactly happened in February and March. The pubs go back to being pubs. Our hospitality industry is taken off life support. The tidal wave of bankruptcies is avoided. We can play sport and celebrate the wins. We stop talking about things we can or can't do. Just imagine that first session... And imagine how good it would feel knowing that you had worked for it, and knowing that you had set the nation on a better path for generations to come...
I think it’s worth a lash! Don’t you?
submitted by 4SMD1MCW to ireland [link] [comments]

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Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes
(Note: if you were following my earlier posts, I wrote a note at the end of this post explaining why I deleted old posts and what changed)
Edit: Can't reply to comments since my account is still flagged as new :\. Thank you everyone for your comments. Edit: Made another post answering questions here.
  • Test data is untouched during training 10:1:1 train:val:test.
  • Yes, I consider it "deep" learning from what I learned at my institution. I use LSTMs at one point in my pipeline, feel free to consider that deep or not.
  • I'll be making daily posts so that people can follow along.
  • Someone mentioned RL, yes I plan on trying that in the future :). This would require a really clever way to encode the current state parameters. Haven't thought about it too much yet.
  • Someone mentioned how companies beat earnings 61% anyway, so my model must be useless right? Well if you look at the confusion matrix you can see I balanced classes before training (with some noise). This means that the data had roughly 50/50 beat/miss and had a 58% test accuracy.
TLDR:
Not financial advice.
  • I created a deep learning algorithm trained on 2015-2019 data to predict whether a company will beat earning estimates.
  • Algorithm has an accuracy of 58%.
  • I need data and suggestions.
  • I’ll be making daily posts for upcoming earnings.
Greetings everyone,
I’m Bunga, an engineering PhD student at well known university. Like many of you, I developed an interest in trading because of the coronavirus. I lost a lot of money by being greedy and uninformed about how to actually trade options. With all the free time I have with my research slowing down because of the virus, I’ve decided to use what I’m good at (being a nerd, data analytics, and machine learning) to help me make trades.
One thing that stuck out to me was how people make bets on earnings reports. As a practitioner of machine learning, we LOVE binary events since the problem can be reduced to a simple binary classification problem. With that being said, I sought out to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict whether a company will beat earnings estimates.
I strongly suggest TO NOT USE THIS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Please, I could just be a random guy on the internet making things up, and I could have bugs in my code. Just follow along for some fun and don’t make any trades based off of this information 😊
Things other people have tried:
A few other projects have tried to do this to some extent [1,2,3], but some are not directly predicting the outcome of the earnings report or have a very small sample size of a few companies.
The data
This has been the most challenging part of the project. I’m using data for 4,000 common stocks.
Open, high, low, close, volume stock data is often free and easy to come by. I use stock data during the quarter (Jan 1 – Mar 31 stock data for Q1 for example) in a time series classifier. I also incorporate “background” data from several ETFs to give the algorithm a feel for how the market is doing overall (hopefully this accounts for bull/bear markets when making predictions).
I use sentiment analyses extracted from 10K/10Q documents from the previous quarter as described in [4]. This gets passed to a multilayer perceptron neural network.
Data that I’ve tried and doesn’t work to well:
Scraping 10K/10Q manually for US GAAP fields like Assets, Cash, StockholdersEquity, etc. Either I’m not very good at processing the data or most of the tables are incomplete, this doesn’t work well. However, I recently came across this amazing API [5] which will ameliorate most of these problems, and I plan on incorporating this data sometime this week.
Results
After training on about 34,000 data points, the model achieves a 58% accuracy on the test data. Class 1 is beat earnings, Class 2 is miss earnings.. Scroll to the bottom for the predictions for today’s AMC estimates.

https://preview.redd.it/fqapvx2z1tv41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ea5cae25ee5689edea334f2814e1fa73aa195d
Future Directions
Things I’m going to try:
  • Financial twitter sentiment data (need data for this)
  • Data on options (ToS apparently has stuff that you can use)
  • Using data closer to the earnings report itself rather than just the data within the quarterly date
A note to the dozen people who were following me before
Thank you so much for the early feedback and following. I had a bug in my code which was replicating datapoints, causing my accuracy to be way higher in reality. I’ve modified some things to make the network only output a single value, and I’ve done a lot of bug fixing.
Predictions for 4/30/20 AMC:
A value closer to 1 means that the company will be more likely to beat earnings estimates. Closer to 0 means the company will be more likely to miss earnings estimates. (People familiar with machine learning will note that neural networks don’t actually output a probability distribution so the values don’t actually represent a confidence).
  • Tkr: AAPL NN: 0.504
  • Tkr: AMZN NN: 0.544
  • Tkr: UAL NN: 0.438
  • Tkr: GILD NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: TNDM NN: 0.488
  • Tkr: X NN: 0.511
  • Tkr: AMGN NN: 0.642
  • Tkr: WDC NN: 0.540
  • Tkr: WHR NN: 0.574
  • Tkr: SYK NN: 0.557
  • Tkr: ZEN NN: 0.580
  • Tkr: MGM NN: 0.452
  • Tkr: ILMN NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: MOH NN: 0.500
  • Tkr: FND NN: 0.542
  • Tkr: TWOU NN: 0.604
  • Tkr: OSIS NN: 0.487
  • Tkr: CXO NN: 0.470
  • Tkr: BLDR NN: 0.465
  • Tkr: CASA NN: 0.568
  • Tkr: COLM NN: 0.537
  • Tkr: COG NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: SGEN NN: 0.486
  • Tkr: FMBI NN: 0.496
  • Tkr: PSA NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: BZH NN: 0.482
  • Tkr: LOCO NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: DLA NN: 0.460
  • Tkr: SSNC NN: 0.524
  • Tkr: SWN NN: 0.476
  • Tkr: RMD NN: 0.499
  • Tkr: VKTX NN: 0.437
  • Tkr: EXPO NN: 0.526
  • Tkr: BL NN: 0.516
  • Tkr: FTV NN: 0.498
  • Tkr: ASGN NN: 0.593
  • Tkr: KNSL NN: 0.538
  • Tkr: RSG NN: 0.594
  • Tkr: EBS NN: 0.483
  • Tkr: PRAH NN: 0.598
  • Tkr: RRC NN: 0.472
  • Tkr: ICBK NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: LPLA NN: 0.597
  • Tkr: WK NN: 0.630
  • Tkr: ATUS NN: 0.530
  • Tkr: FBHS NN: 0.587
  • Tkr: SWI NN: 0.521
  • Tkr: TRUP NN: 0.570
  • Tkr: AJG NN: 0.509
  • Tkr: BAND NN: 0.618
  • Tkr: DCO NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: BRKS NN: 0.490
  • Tkr: BY NN: 0.502
  • Tkr: CUZ NN: 0.477
  • Tkr: EMN NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: VICI NN: 0.310
  • Tkr: GLPI NN: 0.371
  • Tkr: MTZ NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: SEM NN: 0.405
  • Tkr: SPSC NN: 0.465
[1] https://towardsdatascience.com/forecasting-earning-surprises-with-machine-learning-68b2f2318936
[2] https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2019/12/Improving-Earnings-Predictions-with-Machine-Learning-Hunt-Myers-Myers.pdf
[3] https://www.euclidean.com/better-than-human-forecasts
[4] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/edgaedgar.pdf.
[5] https://financialmodelingprep.com/developedocs/
submitted by xXx_Bunga_xXx to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

#WINk Question & Answer Time

Date: 14/05/20
  1. Why implement new UI (ultra super 4k) if old gives you money?
WINK has a big goal we want to play a big role in the online casino industry not limited to a tron dapp. The reason we implement the new UI is that it is fundamental for multi-currencies. Only with multi-currencies, can WINK grow big. WINk is not satisfied with being the best Tron DAPP. We will only be satisfied when we are the best of our kind, within the entire cryptocurrency community.
  1. How does one win a drop?
Drops are not win a drop, drops are paid out every day for holding and freezing the tokens (WIN LIVE DICE & RAKE) from each drop pool.
  1. Can I play dice with JST token?
It is a pity that you cannot now, but we’ll try to see whether JST token can be supported in the future.
  1. Do you know when the monthly report will be released?
We are preparing for it. As the third party live game providers always provide their invoice on the 10th of each month, we need some time to calculate, finish the buyback and burn. So usually we will send the monthly report from 15th to 19th of each month.
  1. joined momentarily just to say 8 months later price is still falling lolz. Could it be the massive supply of WIN or is it the fear people have of the team dumping. Or is it the fact that no one knows who the team is? I’ll leave this here, I don’t want to argue. Peace
The team is working to increase the value of WIN. WIN Price is undervalued we believe due to lack of knowledge about its utility. Mass marketing across all current large cryptocurrency platforms must ensue at our earliest convenience. Multi-currency is not performing to its full potential. By increasing the sizes of the sub token drop pools - WIN pool will dramatically increase also. As the mother token of the platform WIN will need to showcase its potential and the increased drop amounts will have a very positive effect on the WIN pool and market price. At the same time, Rake has great potential. According to the data from 2019, Dice contributed 60% to the entire platform revenue, Live contributed 36%, whilst Rake only 4%. This shows us that Rake has great potential. We are working to improve the Rake product. We are aware of the changes that need making and the areas that require attention to bring increased revenue to WIN. When the new website and multi-currencies support is complete, we will push out a new poker product combined with aggressive promotion and partners, we believe that there will be a dramatic increase in Rake revenue once this is completed. RAKE relinquishes 40% of its profits to the WIN drop pool, meaning it is by far the most underused and undervalued section of the platform in our current forecast. We aim to change this and bring our RAKE platform to a much higher industry-standard as is expected from our players. At this moment in time, we are in the process of upgrading the website. We are developing and designing a new user interface that allows for multi-currency drops to be enabled and a more user-friendly experience all around. We expect this to be completed by mid-June. The new website will support a swift and easy to follow login process, allowing players to easily access the WINK website via registration with an email address and experience the centralized LIVE casino games that are available and newly added Binary options trading that WINk offers under this section. Alongside this, it will support all major currencies from the top 100 cryptocurrency market. Which will exponentially expand the target audience and change the current playeuser base: who are currently only Tron DAPP users and open it up to every crypto user in the community as well as traditional online gamblers who seek gameplay that truly rewards them back for their wagering. When completed, WINk can quickly start mass marketing campaigns and greatly enhance its current market share, which in turn can bring the entire platform's revenue, user dividends, and WIN's tokens market price to a much higher level and standard. WINk is not satisfied with
being the best Tron DAPP. We will only be satisfied when we are the best of our kind, within the entire cryptocurrency community.
Date: 15/05/20
  1. What was this big giveaway for? The giveaways we do on twitter are always to improve and increase our engagement and social media presence. We still feel that many people do not know about WIN and the more people that hear about is means the more chances we have of improving our user numbers and improve platform growth
For this Twitter Giveaway, we want to get some exposure on twitter and telegram. That is a normal way for promotion. Of course, it is not the massive promotion we mentioned before.
  1. On May everything going according to the Plan and we can expect a new UI and Dice game at the end of the month? Or there any updates about that?
Everything goes according to the plan. It is supposed to be a new UI in May. About the Dice game, we will launch immediately once the new website goes smoothly.
  1. Is that wheel of fortune game new on live ? Evolution games are available to us and when the game is released we will be requesting it for wink.
We are managing a great relationship with hub88. We will discuss the new game with them and I am sure they will give us a satisfactory answer.
  1. Most big div pools come from mining, and if people stop to mine dividends are not so great. Do you have something in mind to keep people mine?
I think there are two reasons for people mining. The first, playing games for fun.Which is why we will continue to bring more content and great games to the platform. Secondly people want the tokens to be able to increase their daily dividends, we will bring more value to the platform by adding partners continually under the current sub sections. This will bring more players and more value which will bring people to mind which of course brings higher dividends
  1. Is there any chance of getting a date for listing of dice and Live? We do not have a set date yet for the listing of LIVE or DICE the community will be informed when it has been decided
Regarding the listing, we have to negotiate the specific date with exchanges. We are doing some preparation works now to get the subtoken listed on time.
  1. Where does the new scratch card(e gaming) game come?
In-house. Developed by WINk developers. We Will inform you where on the site it is going when it’s finished
Thanks community! It is all about today’s Questions and Answers section. If you have more questions, please feedback in the main channel. The mods will forward the questions to the team and we’ll try to answer them on a daily basis.
Thanks again for your support!Enjoy your gaming and WIN big!
submitted by WINkfans to WINk_org [link] [comments]

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes
(Note: if you were following my earlier posts, I wrote a note at the end of this post explaining why I deleted old posts and what changed)
TLDR:
Not financial advice.
  • I created a deep learning algorithm trained on 2015-2019 data to predict whether a company will beat earning estimates.
  • Algorithm has an accuracy of 58%.
  • I need data and suggestions.
  • I’ll be making daily posts for upcoming earnings.
Greetings everyone,
I’m Bunga, an engineering PhD student at well known university. Like many of you, I developed an interest in trading because of the coronavirus. I lost a lot of money by being greedy and uninformed about how to actually trade options. With all the free time I have with my research slowing down because of the virus, I’ve decided to use what I’m good at (being a nerd, data analytics, and machine learning) to help me make trades.
One thing that stuck out to me was how people make bets on earnings reports. As a practitioner of machine learning, we LOVE binary events since the problem can be reduced to a simple binary classification problem. With that being said, I sought out to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict whether a company will beat earnings estimates.
I strongly suggest TO NOT USE THIS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Please, I could just be a random guy on the internet making things up, and I could have bugs in my code. Just follow along for some fun and don’t make any trades based off of this information 😊
Things other people have tried:
A few other projects have tried to do this to some extent [1,2,3], but some are not directly predicting the outcome of the earnings report or have a very small sample size of a few companies.
The data
This has been the most challenging part of the project. I’m using data for 4,000 common stocks.
Open, high, low, close, volume stock data is often free and easy to come by. I use stock data during the quarter (Jan 1 – Mar 31 stock data for Q1 for example) in a time series classifier. I also incorporate “background” data from several ETFs to give the algorithm a feel for how the market is doing overall (hopefully this accounts for bull/bear markets when making predictions).
I use sentiment analyses extracted from 10K/10Q documents from the previous quarter as described in [4]. This gets passed to a multilayer perceptron neural network.
Data that I’ve tried and doesn’t work to well:
Scraping 10K/10Q manually for US GAAP fields like Assets, Cash, StockholdersEquity, etc. Either I’m not very good at processing the data or most of the tables are incomplete, this doesn’t work well. However, I recently came across this amazing API [5] which will ameliorate most of these problems, and I plan on incorporating this data sometime this week.
Results
After training on about 34,000 data points, the model achieves a 58% accuracy on the test data. Class 1 is beat earnings, Class 2 is miss earnings.. Scroll to the bottom for the predictions for today’s AMC estimates.

https://preview.redd.it/qmeig6of3tv41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8ba4a34294b7388bf1b9e64150d7375da959ac2
Future Directions
Things I’m going to try:
  • Financial twitter sentiment data (need data for this)
  • Data on options (ToS apparently has stuff that you can use)
  • Using data closer to the earnings report itself rather than just the data within the quarterly date
A note to the dozen people who were following me before
Thank you so much for the early feedback and following. I had a bug in my code which was replicating datapoints, causing my accuracy to be way higher in reality. I’ve modified some things to make the network only output a single value, and I’ve done a lot of bug fixing.
Predictions for 4/29/20 AMC:
A value closer to 1 means that the company will be more likely to beat earnings estimates. Closer to 0 means the company will be more likely to miss earnings estimates. (People familiar with machine learning will note that neural networks don’t actually output a probability distribution so the values don’t actually represent a confidence).
  • Tkr: AAPL NN: 0.504
  • Tkr: AMZN NN: 0.544
  • Tkr: UAL NN: 0.438
  • Tkr: GILD NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: TNDM NN: 0.488
  • Tkr: X NN: 0.511
  • Tkr: AMGN NN: 0.642
  • Tkr: WDC NN: 0.540
  • Tkr: WHR NN: 0.574
  • Tkr: SYK NN: 0.557
  • Tkr: ZEN NN: 0.580
  • Tkr: MGM NN: 0.452
  • Tkr: ILMN NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: MOH NN: 0.500
  • Tkr: FND NN: 0.542
  • Tkr: TWOU NN: 0.604
  • Tkr: OSIS NN: 0.487
  • Tkr: CXO NN: 0.470
  • Tkr: BLDR NN: 0.465
  • Tkr: CASA NN: 0.568
  • Tkr: COLM NN: 0.537
  • Tkr: COG NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: SGEN NN: 0.486
  • Tkr: FMBI NN: 0.496
  • Tkr: PSA NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: BZH NN: 0.482
  • Tkr: LOCO NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: DLA NN: 0.460
  • Tkr: SSNC NN: 0.524
  • Tkr: SWN NN: 0.476
  • Tkr: RMD NN: 0.499
  • Tkr: VKTX NN: 0.437
  • Tkr: EXPO NN: 0.526
  • Tkr: BL NN: 0.516
  • Tkr: FTV NN: 0.498
  • Tkr: ASGN NN: 0.593
  • Tkr: KNSL NN: 0.538
  • Tkr: RSG NN: 0.594
  • Tkr: EBS NN: 0.483
  • Tkr: PRAH NN: 0.598
  • Tkr: RRC NN: 0.472
  • Tkr: ICBK NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: LPLA NN: 0.597
  • Tkr: WK NN: 0.630
  • Tkr: ATUS NN: 0.530
  • Tkr: FBHS NN: 0.587
  • Tkr: SWI NN: 0.521
  • Tkr: TRUP NN: 0.570
  • Tkr: AJG NN: 0.509
  • Tkr: BAND NN: 0.618
  • Tkr: DCO NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: BRKS NN: 0.490
  • Tkr: BY NN: 0.502
  • Tkr: CUZ NN: 0.477
  • Tkr: EMN NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: VICI NN: 0.310
  • Tkr: GLPI NN: 0.371
  • Tkr: MTZ NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: SEM NN: 0.405
  • Tkr: SPSC NN: 0.465
[1] https://towardsdatascience.com/forecasting-earning-surprises-with-machine-learning-68b2f2318936
[2] https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2019/12/Improving-Earnings-Predictions-with-Machine-Learning-Hunt-Myers-Myers.pdf
[3] https://www.euclidean.com/better-than-human-forecasts
[4] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/edgaedgar.pdf.
[5] https://financialmodelingprep.com/developedocs/
submitted by xXx_Bunga_xXx to u/xXx_Bunga_xXx [link] [comments]

Launch of the first product

Attention, friends 📢.

Here is the long-awaited moment to launch binary options. From this moment on you can start using our product and earn money. Regardless of your ability to guess the market movement you will receive ASLA tokens. Also you can freeze tokens purchased from trading and receive dividends from the income of the binary option.

PRODUCTS
ASLAgames – play and earn dividends (in development)

ASLAtrade – our trading platform is clear even to a beginner

Cryptobinary is a relatively new area for investment. The popularity of this tool can be explained as simplicity and accessibility.

ASLAtrade has functionality for professionals, and is as simple and intuitive for beginners. All necessary information is presented in the starting page.

ASLAtrade is based on blockchain and smart contracts. This is primarily clear trading and unconditional data protection. One of the advantages of binary contracts is simplicity. Just click on the "higher" or "lower" button and wait for the result. The risks are known in advance. The outcome of the bet depends on the correctness of the prediction of price changes for the selected asset.

There are two options: the forecast is correct and makes a profit, or it is incorrect and the transaction value goes to a loss. But in any case, you get an ASLA token, which, when frozen, will accrue daily dividends from the platform turnover in TRX tokens and a secondary coin of the ASLAgames platform.

ASLAtrade - gives you real confidence in the future. The number of coins is limited.

Only one trading pair is currently available. We will add 6 more within a month.
Now due to the first launch any defects or failures are possible. Please be understanding and let us know immediately if you find out.

Friends the ASLAproject team has taken All user suggestions into account and here is our response!!!
Upcoming soon:
1) There will be an increase in the winning percentage by a range of 30-75%
2) The history of all bets will be added in real time
3) A public betting register will be added for full transparency
4) The player rating will be added
5) The payout airdrop will be reduced from 30% to 20% due to the increased win rate
6) The referral program will be integrated , but we need your suggestions on this issue , as you see it
Sincerely the ASLAproject team

Website - https://aslaproject.com

A Russian-speaking channel in the telegram - https://t.me/aslachannel

[ENG]English-Speaking chat in telegram - https://t.me/ASLAproject

Exchange where the token is traded - https://poloniex.org/exchange
submitted by ASLA_Project to u/ASLA_Project [link] [comments]

How should we recover when we lose

How should we recover when we lose
All or most of you who are reading these words know the advantages of operating in Kodimax and that how to recover money lost from Kodimax is considered one of the best and most powerful tools to get profitability from our savings. This is true but of course, it is not without complications either due to lack of luck or, in most cases, carelessness or mistakes that with a previous plan or forecast could have been avoided.
Although you are a great expert in the stock markets, it is inevitable to be exposed to possible losses and a great battle that you must fight is to overcome them as best as possible. It is always bad news to lose part of our funds, but we should not be discouraged and stop operating, on many occasions it will serve as a way of learning and in the following moves we will be able to recover what we have lost.

https://preview.redd.it/db8zjaes2ot41.jpg?width=1481&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e9a25d11dc7a4f9b4ae6f8b2714107ca38fdfe8
We are going to give you some recommendations that will serve you for a better and more rewarding experience in the binary options market.
Train us, and not invest without knowing. To avoid losses due to lack of experience and ignorance, a fundamental point of any trader's stage is learning. Training is vital, and for that reason before launching into the markets we must bother to know a little about it and how it is traded. It is clear that everyone is susceptible to loss at first, but at least if we are trained to trade in the markets we will avoid unnecessary losses. Investing without knowing will only bring you problems, so first learn and then practice.
Be prepared for losses. It is a reality and therefore we must always keep it in mind. It is not possible to trade in the stock markets without having a single loss while investing. Not all of them will be equally painful for our pocket but as a good investor we must be farsighted and of course keep going in the face of obstacles that come our way. If we are not able to cope with this, the world of investing may not be for you. You must be clear at all times about possible losses and not sink when they arrive, as there is always an option to recover. Of course, do not try to recover from losses by investing twice. It is important that you stick to your plan and not act on impulse.
Assess the situation after each operation. This is a good habit that will help us to focus the losses and gains that we are making and with it we will be able to balance losses and gains to end up with a positive result for our funds. It will help us a lot in learning from our mistakes and reserving our funds for much longer. Without a doubt this is perhaps one of the most interesting points to know how to recover from losses, because by analyzing operations we will be able to know what we did wrong and improve it. It should be noted that in any case it is always advisable to review the sessions, because even if we get benefits everything is always improvable.
Patience when it comes to recovering. An investor must be consistent and not impatient when it comes to obtaining good results. If after a great loss we try to play an all or nothing, very possibly we will obtain a negative result losing everything. We must try to recover our losses with short but safe steps, large operations are not always the best. You should invest relaxed and with enough concentration to act safely analyzing each movement. Certainly, as we have indicated before, it is not good to be carried away by emotions when we incur losses. You have to analyze the situation and improve in the next operations. Regularly and little by little we will ensure that successes in new investments help us recover from losses, so there is no need to be in a hurry, because the balance should come alone.
We must practice before investing in a real way. It is a very common mistake especially if the person is misinformed about the stock markets. A lot come with preconceived ideas of maximum facilities and 100% positive results. False, like many other things in life, good results will not be achieved without effort. The recommendation is in about 4 months prior to study and practice in the investment world. Depending on the capacities or the time we dedicate daily, some may invest insurance sooner or later, but the average time is a solid base. One of the best ways to practice are the demo accounts that some online traders offer.
Choose and check the effectiveness of our trading system. A basic thing for every investor is to have a solid trading system to accompany them during their investments. For this, experts estimate that about 300 tests are necessary with our system to evaluate if it is good enough to operate. The most important thing is always that it adapts to our way of operating, leaving aside the type of strategy that it uses since these are many and very varied from each other. An important point is to establish an objective trading system, based on our investment needs and taking into account the available capital and how we want to manage it. It will also be useful to know what level of risk tolerance we have. In short, we do want to know which trading system is best for us and we must be very clear about our investor profile.
Have an effective strategy and have useful tools. Both to avoid losses and to recover from them, an effective trading system can do a lot for us. It should be borne in mind that in addition to the multiple trading strategies that exist and that we can carry out, on the trading platforms we are also offered multiple useful tools to improve our experience. To anticipate the reactions of the markets and to negotiate successfully we have the economic calendar. In addition, we have additional functions that can help us cover operations, limit losses and guarantee profits.
You must always follow a disciplined plan. Not only do we mean to follow our system as we have tested it as we indicated before, but if we really want to get a good performance, we must dedicate the necessary time to it. A good option is to set fixed times a day and strictly comply with it. The markets are very changing and if we always operate at the same time, we will observe that some patterns will be repeated and it will be easier for us to find the good opportunities.
Our emotional state must be neutral. A cold mind is very important when it comes to investing and if for example we are having a bad streak it is preferable that we stop investing for a while, calm down and come back much calmer or make an aggressive investment and lose everything. This occurs when our greed or fear guides our movements. It will not always be because of a bad streak, good times can also be deceptive as they create an aura of security that does not exist and can cause us to lose everything we have earned so far. So now you know, act with discipline and put emotions aside.
Diversify capital to better control it. If you want to avoid excess losses, the best thing you can do is learn to correctly manage the available capital and diversify it in the best possible way when investing. If you suffer losses and want to recover, it is important that you know how to manage the available capital, so give the importance it deserves to the management of capital.
submitted by Pusbali to u/Pusbali [link] [comments]

Functional decentralized environment for investment and profit

The first product will be ASLAtrade.
Cryptobinary is a relatively new area for investment. The popularity of this tool can be explained as simplicity and accessibility. ASLAtrade has functionality for professionals, and is as simple and intuitive for beginners. All necessary information is presented in the starting page. ASLAtrade is based on blockchain and smart contracts. This is primarily clear trading and unconditional data protection. One of the advantages of binary contracts is simplicity. Just click on the "higher" or "lower" button and wait for the result. The risks are known in advance.The outcome of the bet depends on the correctness of the prediction of price changes for the selected asset.
There are two options: the forecast is correct and makes a profit, or it is incorrect and the transaction value goes to a loss. But in any case, you get an ASLA token, which, when frozen, will accrue daily dividends from the platform turnover in TRX tokens and a secondary coin of the ASLAgame platform. ASLAtrade - gives you real confidence in the future
The next product will be ASLAgame.
Who among us has not dreamed of playing your favorite computer game and earning money at the same time? Why not get closer to your dream? ASLAproject gives an opportunity to all fans of computer games to earn cryptocurrency thanks to ASLAgame. ASLAgame is your favorite games created on the basis of blockchain and smart contracts
The main currency is the ASLA token. When frozen, the ASLA coin gives you daily dividends from the platform's turnover and will be a priority for the ASLAgame token. “Dividends? “Of course, this is everyone’s target”. Today our token has low priority, but in the nearest future its value will rise twice or even more in price. There will be many plans in the future (keep in touch for more information).
The project is under permanent developing. Our specialists in the sphere of information and communications prepare video recordings, text supports, online chats with direct round-the-clock dialogs. Twice a month, there will be video reports about the work done, as well as conferences (webinars). The number of coins, of course, is limited. Demand for coins will be constantly broadcasted online
submitted by ASLA_Project to u/ASLA_Project [link] [comments]

Try reopen your dispute with Visa card under condition 13.5

The terms of sale were misrepresented for a transaction involving the following merchant types such as:

For your convenience, here's a template letter to your bank, feel free to modify and use.

Dear Madam or Sir,

I would like to provide documents to support the dispute against HashCoins LP(dba Hashflare, Merchant). I purchased a digital service(bitcoin mining) from the Merchant under the agreement of Terms of Service. Invoices are attached. You may find the Terms of Service at the merchant’s official website at https://hashflare.io/terms/.

  1. HashCoins significantly misrepresented the service on their website and in the Terms of Service on the following grounds.

1.1 “Fixed” Fees
On its official website www.hashflare.io (see Attached screenshot), above the "Purchase" section, HashCoins promises to charge “FIXED FEES” and “No hidden fees or commissions.” Maintenance fees are listed as “$0.005/ 1 MH/s / 24h” for SCRYPT cloud mining and “$0.0035 / 10 GH/s / 24h” for SHA-256 at the time of my purchase. All fees are shown in USD currency. HashCoins purposely points out that the fee is in “$” and says it’s fixed. In the Terms of Service, Section 11.1 on Page 9, they continue to show the fees are measured in USD (measure in USD / kWh, highlighted and quoted below):

F = A * q * S * 720 h, where:
A - actual hashrate, measured in H/s;
q - power consumption (powehashrate), measured in kW / H/s;
S - electricity cost (average for 2 previous months), measure in USD / kWh;
720 h - hours in 1 month (accounted as 30 days).

However, they never disclosed that they charge “fees” in BTC (Bitcoin currency) NOT in USD. And since the exchange rate of BTC/USD varies every day, the fees are in fact variable. Without given this information, HashCoins made customers believe that the contract will be profitable for the most of the time using their formula and the profitability will not be affected by the exchange rate. In retrospect, if the maintenance fees were in BTC, their contracts would be extremely unlikely to be profitable and their service is worthless.

By contrast, other merchants in the industry all fully disclose how they handle the maintenance fee in details. For instance, Genesis cloud mining, who provides a similar service, informs their customers in their ads that “Please note that the fee is fixed in USD but deducted from the daily mining rewards in BTC. Please refer to the Terms of Service for further details.” (See attachment, Genesis cloud mining’s ad. Can be found on their homepage https://www.genesis-mining.com/pricing). Genesis also explained how the conversion works in their Terms of Service.

1.2 Refuse to allow customers to withdraw available payout

On the website, HashCoins highlights that their service allows “INSTANT WITHDRAWAL”(see Attached screenshot), and customers can “Choose the amount to withdraw and receive it instantly”. Now HashCoins does not allow customers to withdraw until their profit (after subtracting maintenance fees) reaches a minimum amount, they also require customers to go through a very tedious verification process before they can withdraw, not to mention this minimum amount is impossible to reach for any ordinary customers.

1.3 Misleading Revenue Forecast
To make matters worse, HashCoins displayed a misleading “Revenue Forecast” on user’s dashboard (See attached screenshot, HashCoins Revenue Forecast), in which the revenue doesn’t take into account the maintenance fees, instead they indicated that the revenue is the payout. This makes existing customers continue to believe that their digital mining service is profitable.

  1. HashCoins misrepresented its cancellation policy

Specifically, in Section 5, the cancellation and termination policy specifies that after the mining become unprofitable for 21 consecutive days, HashCoins will and must permanently terminate the contract. As a result, they should return my funds, which was prepaid for 1-year service.
Boris, One of HashCoins’ support team members, has confirmed with me the cancellation policy in his email on (Correspondence 1).
On July 24, 2018, after 21 consecutive days of being non-profitable, HashCoins sent me an email about the cancellation (Correspondence 2).
On July 28, 2018, HashCoins claimed that they would resume the mining service (Correspondence 3) even though mining had not been profitable since then. I have never received payout. HashCoins only uses the “continuation” of service as a way to avoid refund. This is breach of contract.
At this moment, I simply demand the merchant HashCoins to follow the Terms of Service, and to cancel and refund my prepaid funds. I have been paying Maintenance fees (See the log HashCoins attached) while they offered the service even though the fees was misrepresented in the advertising and Terms of Service, as explained later. There is no reason for HashCoins to continue withholding my prepaid funds.

Quoted from the Terms of Service (a copy is screenshot is attached):
  1. CONTRACT TERM
5.1. These Terms of Service are valid indefinitely, even after Account termination.
5.2. The Contract Term for HashFlare.io Cloud Machines is set to 1 year by default, unless stated otherwise. The Contract is valid while profitable (refer to section 5.5.), until expired or until terminated (refer to section 13), whichever comes first.
5.3. Contracts with a stated expiry date will end on the date of expiry and the Cloud Machine is stopped.
5.4. Pre-order Contracts that are not activated immediately on purchase will activate on the stated date.
5.5. The Mining process continues until said mining is profitable. This means the Mining process will stop if the Maintenance and Electricity Fees will become larger than the Payout. If mining remains unprofitable for 21 consecutive days the Service is permanently terminated (Hashrate type specific). During the consecutive 21 day period, Payouts and Fees will also be temporarily stopped. If during the suspension period, the Contract-related mining factors (such as the exchange rate and mining difficulty) that are outside of HashFlare’s control will change favorably, making mining profitable again, the Service will be unsuspended and contracts reactivated.
5.6. HashFlare reserves the right to change the launch date, Contract Term of any Contract.

In sum, HashCoins misrepresented the service and income possibility to customers meanwhile they failed to act in accordance with their terms of service customers agreed on. I find this merchant lacks integrity. I am not surprised to see many people complaining and filing chargebacks against them. You may find testimonies on Twitter, Google, Reddit oand other social media. I hope the chargeback can be resolved in my favor. Thanks again for your support! 


submitted by Livinindacar to hashflare [link] [comments]

Shadowverse - Where are we going from here?

Let's face the facts... Tempest of the Gods was unequivocally the worst expansion in this game so far. I think a lot of people couldn't predict the powerspike that Shadowcraft received (and Dragoncraft, which was decimated in one fell swoop by the recent nerfs).
I personally think SV is heading down a very slippery slope, and here's why:
  1. Cygames has already created and let discontinue a previous CCG in NA through another company(Rage of Bahamut, 2012-2014 in NA by a different company **correction by u/moekou, still functioning in Japan)
  2. Free packs are nice, but they devalue the rare cards in the game (they also entice people to spend money) and is in many ways a "get rich quick" scheme. Ex. Black Desert (or any other Korean MMO for that matter), basically all free micro transaction phone games.
  3. Lack of care for balance. We've had 3 months of Shadowcraft, and only dragon gets trashed in terms of balance. I don't even enjoy doing my dailies anymore. I won't even bother trying to argue WHICH cards are responsible, because this has been rehashed 1281938193 times. There are problems. They haven't been fixed.
  4. Power creep in general. This all began with Albert, Daria and Bahamut. The divine trinity. We've all heard about how cards like Dimension Shift put a hard timer on the game (Similarly with Divine Aegis) and the flaws that brings to the game. One of them is that we end up with grossly strong binary cards (cards with no choice or options).
Take Bahamut for instance. Can you think of a 10 drop effect that is stronger than his? What will the future of "Bahamut" look like? Bahamut is a card that completely destroys an opponents strategy and leaves NO counter play (see: Dimension Shift). Prince Catacomb was an interesting answer to this, but unnecessary with all the other cards Shadow got in Tempest of the Gods. Will the next 10 drop that powercreeps Bahamut BANISH all cards (see: Lightning Blast). Or maybe be a 20/20 Storm (because all games MUST end by turn 8-9) (see: Tilting at the windmills, Empress of the Demonic Sea).
What about Daria? What's the next "upgrade" to a card like Daria. You can't counter her. You can only hope to have AoE removal when she inevitably vomits out monsters for free.
Or how about Albert? Sword is possibly the worst offender for lazy design. What meta sword decks actually use the OfficeCommander mechanic? None. There hasn't been that interaction in a meta sword deck since I started playing back in Darkness Evolved.
All of the classes identities and signature abilities are completely f***ed at the moment due to a clueless design team. (Their argument for Aegis and Deepwood Anomaly after community complaints was "Well someone on our design team liked it, so we had to include it"... even when these cards do NOTHING to support the identity of Haven or Forest). A perfect example of this is they needed to release overstatted, overvalued cards for Bloodcraft's Vengeance to be viable (Blood Moon isn't even played, even when forecast as one of the best cards in TotG). Haven didn't receive any good Countdown Amulets (which is arguably their identifying feature, since Dragon can heal more). Forest is LITERALLY balanced and tuned around one card - Rhinoceroach. It makes so many other interesting and fun forest cards unplayable and invalid simply by existing. In fact, a lot of Forest lineups are dominated by staples (3 May, 3 Roach, 3 Sylvan Justice, 3 Ancient Elf, 3 Natures Guidance, 3 Elven Princess mage + filler). Even after the Goblin mage interaction with roach was nerfed, we STILL see it as the dominant deck list.
Cygames seems obsessed with making a high value drop for every turn, rather than promoting diversity. This is a lot of the problem with Shadow, who gets incredible value every turn. The same with Sword, who can ignore the OfficeCommander interactions because they just get overstatted value cards for every slot - which is further being emphasised with the 5 mana Zeus they are getting in the upcoming expansion.
This upcoming expansion brings little to the table in establishing the original identity of a lot of thematic decks, and still isn't introducing cards with a lot of "choice". It's focusing on bringing neutral themed decks into relevancy for each class.
I for one, will not be spending any more money on this game until I see some unification on the developers original mindset and identity for the classes in this game.
Note: I know I'll get downvotes simply for knocking free packs, but please leave your own ideas regardless. I'm also cleaning up the grammar as I re-read it. Thanks!
submitted by elementx1 to Shadowverse [link] [comments]

stockAday: Is salesforce twittering on the brink? $CRM

Key Stats for salesforce.com, inc.

Like lots of CRM shareholders, I've been scratching my head about them wanting to buy Twitter. So turbulence aside, is it good investment?
Ticker CRM
Sector Cloud Computing Services
Latest price $72.42
Value $49,608M
Daily vol $1,064M
Date 12 October 2016

Useful Links

Description

salesforce.com, inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions, with a focus on customer relationship management (CRM). The Company's Customer Success Platform, including sales force automation, customer service and support, marketing automation, community management, analytics, application development, etc.
So why buy Twitter? Here's that Reuters says:
Unlike Twitter, its main product is aimed at business users, not consumers. Under Salesforce.com, Twitter could become a corporate tool used to power sentiment analysis and nurture customer relationships.
Now odd that that might seem, remember that we the user of Google are not the "customers". The advertisers are the customers. So perhaps there is method in the madness?

Recent financials

It's really hard to not be impressed by a top line like CRM's! And given it's a "cloud" business with a "SaaS" model, the momentum should run. Why? folks are signing up for monthly subscriptions and they just seem to never go cancelling them in the software space.
Jan year-end 2016A 2015A 2014A 2013A 2012A
Revenue $6.7bn $5.4bn $4.1bn $3.1bn $2.3bn
EPS -$0.07 -$0.42 -$0.39 -$0.48 -$0.02
Of course, it's troubling that the company hasn't turned a profit in the last 5 years, but here's to a first in the year to Jan 2017!

Competition

Talking about the competition, Salesforce highlights:
We compete primarily with generalized platforms and vendors of packaged business software, as well as companies offering enterprise apps, including CRM, collaboration and business intelligence software. We also compete with internally developed apps. We may encounter competition from established enterprise software vendors, as well as start-up and midsized companies focused on disruption, who may develop toolsets and products that allow customers to build new apps that run on the customers’ current infrastructure or as hosted services.
Though one of the competitive risks they highlight is actual a strength of there own!
Many prospective customers have invested substantial personnel and financial resources to implement and integrate their current enterprise software into their businesses and therefore may be reluctant or unwilling to migrate away from their current solution to an enterprise cloud computing application service.
i.e. like a lot of software based services, once you've got the client they are loathed to leave.
And how does this show on in the financials, well the old men of Enterprise technology (MSFT, ORCL, SAP) enjoy little growth but great returns and margins. But the new kids, CRM, WDAY, NOW have the growth but little margin or return.
Companies Latest Sales Operating Profit Return on Equity
salesforce.com, inc. $7,475M 8% 4%
Microsoft Corporation $85,320M 33% 22%
Oracle Corporation $37,194M 42% 19%
SAP SE (ADR) $23,533M 32% 16%
Intuit Inc. $4,694M 32% 46%
Workday Inc $1,352M -15% -31%
ServiceNow Inc $1,194M -8% -117%

Cash / Debt?

If we look at salesforce's balance sheet we can see it has $1,340M of net debt. That is 2.2x it's latest operating profit. So it's a $50bn market value business with quite a bit of debt on it's books and it's considering a bid for TWTR a $13bn value business (though $2bn of that is cash).

Wall Street thinks?

The professionals on Wall Street have a $93.51 for salesforce.com, inc. and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 29% to their target.

Valuation

I've always struggled to value the highflying SaaS businesses. The regular metrics just don't give any comfort. And if I switch to price-to-sales I still get faced with CRM on 6x forward sales versus MSFT/ORCL on 4x. So where's the comfort there?
And I can't even hang my hat on the earnings the year after next :( With a forecast of $0.95 this year and just $1.27 the year after.
View Peers Valuation Forecast PE Long-term Growth Dividend Yield FCF Yield
CRM $49,608M 76x 30% 0% 1%
MSFT.O $445,654M 20x 9% 3% 8%
ORCL.K $156,056M 14x 8% 2% 9%
SAP $110,016M 21x 11% 1% 6%
INTU.O $27,597M 25x 17% 1% 5%
WDAY.K $17,570M -ve 38% 0% -ve
NOW $12,963M 120x 44% 0% -ve
To try and justify the valuation you need to dig into the cashflow statement and drink from the SaaS KoolAid. For example on the managements 2Q results they talked about:
our full year operating cash flow guidance to a year-over-year growth rate of 20% to 21% which allows us to remain on track for our first $2 billion cash flow year.
Now 25x cashflow doesn't look "hideous" for a business growing like CRM... but if you start looking at the way that figure is calculated, I expect you'll be surprised to see Depreciation > capex, half of the figure coming in deferred revenue, and a substantial % from stock-options-plan adjustments.

Dividends

You won't be surprised that salesforce.com, inc. is not forecast to pay a dividend this year.
Though in share contrast to the big caps who like doing share buybacks, the number of share in circulation at CRM is up substantially in each of the last 5 years.

Catalysts

In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by -11% that compares with no change in the earnings forecasts. The backdrop has been continued double digit top line growth at 26% in the first 6 months.
On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers, they raised guidance for sales, expressed confidence in their margin, spoke of an exciting new set of products (e.g. Einstein), strong cashflows and much more.
In the near-term it's hard to see any catalyst other than the rumor mill round Twitter. And binary outcomes are a horrible environment to take a position in. You'll either feel like a hero or get hammered.
For me, it's one to sit out. Unless of course the stock get's hammered, with investors throwing the baby out with the bathwater!
View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday.
And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next!
If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :).
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. Note: I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
submitted by shane_stockflare to investing [link] [comments]

Is salesforce twittering on the brink? $CRM

Key Stats for salesforce.com, inc.

Like lots of CRM shareholders, I've been scratching my head about them wanting to buy Twitter. So turbulence aside, is it good investment?
Ticker CRM
Sector Cloud Computing Services
Latest price $72.42
Value $49,608M
Daily vol $1,064M
Date 12 October 2016

Useful Links

Description

salesforce.com, inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions, with a focus on customer relationship management (CRM). The Company's Customer Success Platform, including sales force automation, customer service and support, marketing automation, community management, analytics, application development, etc.
So why buy Twitter? Here's that Reuters says:
Unlike Twitter, its main product is aimed at business users, not consumers. Under Salesforce.com, Twitter could become a corporate tool used to power sentiment analysis and nurture customer relationships.
Now odd that that might seem, remember that we the user of Google are not the "customers". The advertisers are the customers. So perhaps there is method in the madness?

Recent financials

It's really hard to not be impressed by a top line like CRM's! And given it's a "cloud" business with a "SaaS" model, the momentum should run. Why? folks are signing up for monthly subscriptions and they just seem to never go cancelling them in the software space.
Jan year-end 2016A 2015A 2014A 2013A 2012A
Revenue $6.7bn $5.4bn $4.1bn $3.1bn $2.3bn
EPS -$0.07 -$0.42 -$0.39 -$0.48 -$0.02
Of course, it's troubling that the company hasn't turned a profit in the last 5 years, but here's to a first in the year to Jan 2017!

Competition

Talking about the competition, Salesforce highlights:
We compete primarily with generalized platforms and vendors of packaged business software, as well as companies offering enterprise apps, including CRM, collaboration and business intelligence software. We also compete with internally developed apps. We may encounter competition from established enterprise software vendors, as well as start-up and midsized companies focused on disruption, who may develop toolsets and products that allow customers to build new apps that run on the customers’ current infrastructure or as hosted services.
Though one of the competitive risks they highlight is actual a strength of there own!
Many prospective customers have invested substantial personnel and financial resources to implement and integrate their current enterprise software into their businesses and therefore may be reluctant or unwilling to migrate away from their current solution to an enterprise cloud computing application service.
i.e. like a lot of software based services, once you've got the client they are loathed to leave.
And how does this show on in the financials, well the old men of Enterprise technology (MSFT, ORCL, SAP) enjoy little growth but great returns and margins. But the new kids, CRM, WDAY, NOW have the growth but little margin or return.
Companies Latest Sales Operating Profit Return on Equity
salesforce.com, inc. $7,475M 8% 4%
Microsoft Corporation $85,320M 33% 22%
Oracle Corporation $37,194M 42% 19%
SAP SE (ADR) $23,533M 32% 16%
Intuit Inc. $4,694M 32% 46%
Workday Inc $1,352M -15% -31%
ServiceNow Inc $1,194M -8% -117%

Cash / Debt?

If we look at salesforce's balance sheet we can see it has $1,340M of net debt. That is 2.2x it's latest operating profit. So it's a $50bn market value business with quite a bit of debt on it's books and it's considering a bid for TWTR a $13bn value business (though $2bn of that is cash).

Wall Street thinks?

The professionals on Wall Street have a $93.51 for salesforce.com, inc. and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 29% to their target.

Valuation

I've always struggled to value the highflying SaaS businesses. The regular metrics just don't give any comfort. And if I switch to price-to-sales I still get faced with CRM on 6x forward sales versus MSFT/ORCL on 4x. So where's the comfort there?
And I can't even hang my hat on the earnings the year after next :( With a forecast of $0.95 this year and just $1.27 the year after.
View Peers Valuation Forecast PE Long-term Growth Dividend Yield FCF Yield
CRM $49,608M 76x 30% 0% 1%
MSFT.O $445,654M 20x 9% 3% 8%
ORCL.K $156,056M 14x 8% 2% 9%
SAP $110,016M 21x 11% 1% 6%
INTU.O $27,597M 25x 17% 1% 5%
WDAY.K $17,570M -ve 38% 0% -ve
NOW $12,963M 120x 44% 0% -ve
To try and justify the valuation you need to dig into the cashflow statement and drink from the SaaS KoolAid. For example on the managements 2Q results they talked about:
our full year operating cash flow guidance to a year-over-year growth rate of 20% to 21% which allows us to remain on track for our first $2 billion cash flow year.
Now 25x cashflow doesn't look "hideous" for a business growing like CRM... but if you start looking at the way that figure is calculated, I expect you'll be surprised to see Depreciation > capex, half of the figure coming in deferred revenue, and a substantial % from stock-options-plan adjustments.

Dividends

You won't be surprised that salesforce.com, inc. is not forecast to pay a dividend this year.
Though in share contrast to the big caps who like doing share buybacks, the number of share in circulation at CRM is up substantially in each of the last 5 years.

Catalysts

In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by -11% that compares with no change in the earnings forecasts. The backdrop has been continued double digit top line growth at 26% in the first 6 months.
On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers, they raised guidance for sales, expressed confidence in their margin, spoke of an exciting new set of products (e.g. Einstein), strong cashflows and much more.
In the near-term it's hard to see any catalyst other than the rumor mill round Twitter. And binary outcomes are a horrible environment to take a position in. You'll either feel like a hero or get hammered.
For me, it's one to sit out. Unless of course the stock get's hammered, with investors throwing the baby out with the bathwater!
View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday.
And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next!
If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :).
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. Note: I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
submitted by shane_stockflare to stockaday [link] [comments]

Daily Binary Profits Review - Thinking Of Buying ? Don't !!

Daily Binary Profits Review –
Read this Comprehensive Daily Binary Profits System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download Daily Binary Profits...
Product : Daily Binary Profits
For Use Of : Binary Options Software
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Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : Daily Binary Profits Official
What is Daily Binary Profits?
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The best part of Daily Binary Profits is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Is Daily Binary Profits Legit?
To utilize Daily Binary Profits, you must open a trading record with a binary options broker. Daily Binary Profits is an free software that is continuously dispatched now, in mid-2014, and until it makes its database of customers, this monetary tool is accessible free of charge. It is exceptionally doubtful that this circumstance will stay as and accordingly it is firmly proposed to sign-in now, and profit from this preference while there is no charge.
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Daily Binary Profits Review - Why Use Daily Binary Profits?
Daily Binary Profits is another, computerized trading administration that shows to traders the best expectations for their investment. It has a few points of interest, highlighted by the accompanying:
• Simplifies the trading process
• Just works through secure and controls binary brokers
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This product can transform your trading knowledge into a speedier, more beneficial, more secure and controlled experience. The initial move towards utilizing this brilliant tool is registration process. This is an exceptionally enrollment procedure, the Daily Binary Profits will propose a binary options representative through which you can execute traders.
Every month or so, a new broker tops the suggestion list. Obviously, without a trading record, you can't trade. Along these lines a piece of the enrollment will take you through opening a record and making your first deposit.
Pros Of Daily Binary Profits:
Daily Binary Profits has EXCELLENT visual style and art design.
A helpful and active community.
It’s totally portable, meaning it can go with you on a thumb drive, Smartphone, or other portable device and run on any Windows PC.
Simple to use. It saves your money and saves your time.
Pretty open and user friendly.
Easy to download. It is safe.
100% automated – it trades for you
Fully functional 30-day trial period with no credit card needed
Can turn $500 into $2271 in few days
No previous experience with binary options trading needed
Daily Binary Profits Review - Trading with Daily Binary Profits
Trading binary options with Daily Binary Profits is simple because it permits you to follow the software even if you have very little or no experience in trading.
You just have to follow these to make profit:
• Select the trade
• Choosing an investment amount
• Now follow what Daily Binary Profits suggest
Inside minutes, the trade expires and the results are characterized. Binary options can either expire in-the-cash or out-of-the-cash. If you can accomplish a bigger measure of right forecasts, you can revel in huge benefits.
The Daily Binary Profits is to a great degree simple to utilize, because it is incorporated with your trading stage, and in this manner all it requires from you is to pick your trades. The product makes an indicator by highlighting every present potential trade with either the Green color (signals that it is prescribing a "Call" alternative) or in Red (a signal to choose a “Put” binary option).
Daily Binary Profits Review - Bottom Line:
By emulating these trading indicators, traders can expand generously their benefit levels. Since binary options payouts are amazingly high, even a slight change can decipher into huge measures of cash. When you figure out how to utilize the Daily Binary Profits reliably, you can generate an additional monthly income. So, what are you waiting for? Go and get your copy now and start making money.
Daily Binary Profits Review
submitted by kusolrr to kusolrr [link] [comments]

Rock The Stock Review 2015 - Is Rock The Stock SCAM Or LEGIT? Best Binary Options Stock Trading Software. The Truth About Rock The Stock By Cooper Belmont Review

Rock The Stock Review 2015 - ROCK THE STOCK?? Discover the Truth about Rock The Stock in this Rock The Stock review! So What is Rock The Stock Software all about? Does Rock The Stock Actually Work? Is Rock The Stock Software scam or does it really work?
To discover answers to these questions continue reading my in depth and truthful Rock The Stock Review below.
Rock The Stock Description:
Name: Rock The Stock
Niche: Binary Options.
Official Web site: Activate The NEW Rock The Stock Software!! CLICK HERE NOW!!!
Exactly what is Rock The Stock?
Rock The Stock is essentially a binary options trading software application that is developed to assistance traders win and forecast the marketplace trends with binary options. The software also offers evaluations of the market conditions so that traders can understand exactly what should be your next step. It gives various secret methods that eventually assists. traders without using any complicated trading indicators or follow graphs.
Rock The Stock Binary Options Trading Strategy
Base the Rock The Stock trading technique. After you see it working, you can start to implement your method with routine sized lots. This technique will settle in time. Every Forex binary options trader should choose an account type that is in accordance with their needs and expectations. A bigger account does not imply a bigger profit potential so it is an excellent idea to begin little and slowly add to your account as your returns increase based on the trading choices you make.
Binary Options Trading
To help you trade binary options effectively, it is necessary to have an understanding behind the fundamentals of Binary Options Trading. Currency Trading, or foreign exchange, is based on the perceived value of 2 currencies pairs to one another, and is influenced by the political stability of the country, inflation and interest rates to name a few things. Keep this in mind as you trade and find out more about binary options to maximize your learning experience.
Rock The Stock Summary
In summary, there are some apparent ideas that have actually been tested with time, as well as some newer strategies. that you might not have actually thought about. Hopefully, as long as you follow what we suggest in this post you can either get started with trading with Rock The Stock or improve on exactly what you have actually already done.
This whole thing just makes sense. In fact I don't know why I didn't think of doing it before.
Cooper actually went to New York City, right in the heart of Wall Street and asked brokers and trader off the street...what their opinions were.
And guess what?
They all said Trading Binary Options shouldn't be done on currencies...it's about stocks! And thanks to Cooper Belmont's "Rock the Stock" software, this is all done on 100% autopilot!
Get Your Hands On This Amazing Software So You Too Can Have Automatic Daily Profits With Stock Binary Options!
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submitted by JoshStakes to JoshStakes [link] [comments]

Binary Assassin Review Is BinaryAssassin.co Scam Or Not? - Binary Assassin Review Is Binary Assassin A Scam Or Legit?

Binary Assassin Review Is Binary Assassin Software A Scam Or Legit? Does Binary Assassin System Works? My Binary Assassin Review Share With The Honest Truth About Binary Assassin System Until Download & Invest in It
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To assist you trade binary options correctly, it is very important to have an understanding behind the fundamentals of Binary Options Trading. Currency Trading, or foreign exchange, is based upon the viewed value of. two currencies relative to one another, and is affected by the political stability of the country, inflation and interest rates among other things. Keep this in mind as you trade and learn more about binary options to maximize your learning experience.
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To assist you trade binary options properly, it is important to have an understanding behind the principles of Binary Options Trading. Currency Trading, or forex, is based upon the viewed value of. two currencies relative to one another, and is impacted by the political stability of the country, inflation and interest rates among other things. Keep this in mind as you trade and discover more about. binary options to maximize your learning experience.
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